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02 August 2006 @ 10:07 am
Screwed by the electoral college  
All calculations based off of the 2004 elections. I am ignoring the question of bad-faith electors.

Since voter turnout was 123,535,883, each voter had a theoretical 1/123,535,883 chance of controlling the outcome of the popular vote. We can easily calculate calculate the chance of any given voter controlling the outcome of an actual election via the electoral college by finding that voter's chance of deciding the outcome in her or his state and multiplying that by the state's chance of deciding the outcome in the electoral college. If this calculated number is less than 1/123,535,883, we can say that that voter was "screwed" by the electoral college.

Chance of deciding vote in a state = 1/voter turnout in that state (t).

Chance of state deciding national election = # of electoral votes for that state (e) / total # of electoral votes in system (538)

"screwed" if 1/t * e/538 < 1/123,535,883

"screwed" if e/t < 538/123,535,883 = 0.00000436

Washington, at 11/2,883,499 = 0.00000381 is "screwed". Alaska, at 3/312,598 = 0.0000096 is "not screwed", such that each Alaskan voter enjoys more than twice the voting power of the national average.

Is anybody else following the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact?
quasi randomkaolinfire on August 2nd, 2006 07:42 pm (UTC)
That's a really interesting way to look at it. Thank you :)
Stupendous Manfarmalloc on August 2nd, 2006 07:51 pm (UTC)
No but I like the idea. That would prevent the candidate from campaining really hard in a given state to win its electoral votes. Instead they will have to be sure to win the popular vote as it should be imho.